To start, global emissions are on the rise, up 2% from 2016. While the prior few years had seen a relative flattening in emissions, this more recent data shattered hopes that the trend would continue. On top of that, scientists are finding that observable climate trends line up best with “worst-case scenario” models of global warming—that is, global temperatures could rise five degrees in the next century.
And the arctic is melting much faster than scientists predicted. A recent report by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared “that the North Pole had reached a ‘new normal,’ with no sign of returning to a ‘reliably frozen region.’”
Melting glaciers and sea ice trigger a whole new set of problems. The disappearing ice will cause sea levels to rise, and the “reflective white snow and ice [will] turn into heat-absorbing dark-blue water…[meaning] the Arctic will send less heat back into space, which leads to more warming, more melting, and more sea-level rise still.”
And finally, natural disasters are becoming increasingly ferocious as weather patterns mutate. The United States saw this first-hand, with massive wildfires on the west coast—including the largest ever in California’s history—and a string of hurricanes that ravaged the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and many southern states.
These consequences of global warming are beginning to affect areas of social interest beyond the environment. The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, for example, has been a massive economic burden, wracking up more than $200 billion in damages.
In Rogelj’s words, “Right now we really need to find ways to achieve multiple societal objectives, to find policies and measures and options that allow us to achieve those together.” As governments come to see how climate protection “can align with other priorities like reducing air pollution, and providing clean water and reliable energy,” we have reason to hope that it may become a higher and higher priority.